InSites by: Josephine J. Codilla, PhD
Poll surveys have long played a big role in shaping public opinion and guiding election campaigns, both in the Philippines and other countries. These surveys, often used by candidates, political advisors, and the media, provide a quick view of voter preferences. But the question is—how reliable are these surveys in accurately reflecting voter behavior, and how much do they actually influence voters?
I have personal experience with survey-based research during my master’s thesis on transformational leadership, conducted across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. My “nationwide survey” helped identify the top Filipino leaders of the time, leading me to noteworthy respondents, including the likes of Senator Arturo Tolentino. Interestingly, Senator Tolentino expressed skepticism toward surveys, which I found surprising, especially considering the weight surveys carry in electoral processes.
Poll surveys often face criticism for potential bias, inaccuracies, and their influence on voter behavior. In the Philippines, polling organizations like Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS) regularly release pre-election surveys to show electoral trends. Internationally, groups like Gallup and YouGov do similar work. Despite their wide use, many people, including political figures like former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and former U.S. President Donald Trump, question their accuracy, especially when the results are not in their favor.
One question that often arises is whether polls influence voters. Some argue that the “bandwagon effect” can push voters to support candidates leading in surveys. Others believe polls can trigger an “underdog effect,” where voters rally behind candidates who are trailing. This makes it tricky because polls don’t just reflect public opinion—they can also shape it.
While polls have been correct at times, like when they predicted Rodrigo Duterte’s victory in 2016, they’ve also missed the mark, as seen in the 2016 U.S. elections. These examples show that while polls can provide useful insights, they are not perfect and can be affected by various factors.
In the end, poll surveys help us understand voter behavior, but they need to be viewed carefully. They are just one tool for gauging public opinion and should not be seen as guaranteed predictions of election outcomes.
